S4E2: The Era of Water Bankruptcy
What happens when the world doesn’t just face water scarcity — but water bankruptcy?
In this episode of Sustainability Forward, we unpack a stark new warning from the United Nations: many of the world’s freshwater systems are now so over-used and degraded that they may never recover to their historical levels.
We explore what “global water bankruptcy” actually means, why this framing is different from how we’ve talked about water crises before, and what the implications are for food systems, economies, geopolitics, and climate resilience.
From collapsing aquifers and rivers that no longer reach the sea, to the hidden role of groundwater in global food production, this conversation connects water to some of the biggest challenges facing societies today.
Most importantly, we discuss what can still be done — and why managing water bankruptcy requires political courage, hard limits, and a fundamental rethink of how we value water.
This episode is for anyone interested in sustainability, climate risk, food security, and the invisible systems that underpin modern life.
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Welcome to Sustainably Forward
Harmony.
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How are you doing?
Good Rishi, nice to be back.
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Nice to be back, Harmony.
I wanted to start today's
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episode with a bit of a story,
and the story takes us to
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California, specifically
California Central Valley, where
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about 10 years ago farmers
started drilling deeper and
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deeper wells for water.
When the surface waters started
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drying up, the farmers adapted,
which means they installed new
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pumps, they brought in more
investment, and they started
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drilling more.
But then something started
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happening.
The ground started sinking,
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there were cracks appearing on
the surface of the roads, number
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of the canals that this cross
the valley started warping and
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in some places the land to be
dropped by more than a foot.
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So the whales that the farmers
have been didn't just dry up
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because there was no water, they
actually failed because the
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whole aquifer itself had
collapsed and that water, which
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these farmers were the same, had
no chance of coming back.
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Wow, that's such a powerful
image.
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So it looks like resilience.
So people doing what they
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already always done to cope and
go going ahead, but it's
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probably not exactly that.
Yeah, I actually think it wasn't
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resilience.
It was it was a case of
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overdraft.
What looked like drought turned
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out to be bankruptcy.
And according to the United
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Nations, this isn't just a local
story somewhere in California
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anymore.
It is actually a global problem.
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Yes, at this bring us to the
report that is the core of this
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episode.
A few days back in January 2026,
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the UN University Institute for
Water published a report called
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Global Water Bankruptcy, Living
Beyond Our Ideological Means in
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the post crisis Era.
And when you look at it, he said
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something pretty extraordinary.
They declared the world a
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centered era of global water
bankruptcy.
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And that language actually is is
very critical.
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This isn't a discussion on water
stress, and it's not a temporary
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crisis either.
Water bankruptcy means we are
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using freshwater systems faster
than they can recover, so it's a
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permanent problem.
The report actually argues that
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many rivers and aquifers can no
longer return to historical
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levels even in good years and.
That's a big shift.
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We are used to talking about
draft ending, about cycles,
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about recovery.
But here the cycle is broken.
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So let's unpack this term a
little bit because it sounds a
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little bit abstract.
What does water bankruptcy
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actually mean in practice?
Yeah, and it's very interesting.
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The report breaks it down into
three ideas.
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The first idea is persistent
overuse.
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Essentially, we are withdrawing
more water than nature can
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replenish.
Kind of the idea that we have
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been discussing in the planetary
Boundaries in a way.
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Second, loss of recovery.
Even after wet years, systems
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don't bounce back.
There is additional water in wet
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gears, but the systems don't
bounce back to the to the old
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levels.
And 3rd, they're talking about
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the structural damage.
So aquifers collapse, rivers
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fail to reach the sea, and
ecosystems that degrade
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permanently.
Right?
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All examples of structural
damage, so.
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Isn't shortage anymore, it's
actually damage.
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Exactly.
So scarcity.
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The term suggests that we can
wait it out, but bankruptcy is
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indicating that there is an
element of irreversibility
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associated with it.
Some numbers really make this
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clear.
Around 4 billion people
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experience severe water scarcity
for at least one month every
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year, and about half of global
food production depends on
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regions that are actually
drying.
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And groundwater now supplies
roughly 40% of irrigation
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worldwide.
And the groundwater, the
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metaphorical physical terms also
is the hidden part of the story,
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because people actually they
don't see this appearing, so
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looks like the problem is not
there.
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Yeah, until the groundwater is
completely gone, people don't
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don't see it disappear.
So you're exactly right there.
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And these figures are coming
from the United Nations report.
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It's Food and Agriculture
organizations, a Quastat report
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and in collaboration with the
World Resources Institute.
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You know, Richie also listening
at the beginning of this episode
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and the story you're told, it
reminds me of what we discussed
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about the tragedy of the
Commons.
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So I see many similar angle of
the story back to that concept.
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But why this is accelerating
now?
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Why are we hitting this limit
all at once?
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Yeah, again, the report seems to
break it down into four big
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drivers. 1st is agriculture.
About 70% of freshwater
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withdrawals go to farming.
In many places, crops are grown
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where water was never abundant
to begin with.
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Second, climate change.
Rainfall is becoming more and
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more erratic, drowser longer.
Evaporation is faster.
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Third, relation and conduction.
More people, more water
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intensive diets and more urban
demand and force.
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And, crucially, it is a
governance failure.
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So the last one is quite
uncomfortable I would say.
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Yes it is.
In many countries, groundwater
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is barely regulated.
Water is treated like an
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infinite public good, again
linked to the idea of the
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tragedy of commerce.
It's not today as a finite
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asset, and it actually is a
finite asset in many ways.
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And the report is very clear on
this point.
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What Bankruptcy is not just a
climate issue, it's a it's a
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management failure problem.
Yeah, you know, in the Third
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Point, in the fourth point that
you mentioned before, he also
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remind me of what happened just
few days back in southern Italy
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that is region for mine from.
So we had Sicily devastated by a
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cyclone Harry, with huge damage,
a lot of water drained to the
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cities, a territory that has
been kind of devastated by this
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body storm.
And we're talking about
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Mediterranean Sea and it
happened during winter.
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So something that was completely
unexpected, but it's linked to
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what you said is linked to the
rainfall.
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I mean more erratic, difficult
to forecast, harder and linked
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to the increasing in temperature
definitely.
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Now back to the report.
This is where the conversation
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coming back from what you what
you are explaining water
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bankruptcy shift from
environmental to economic very
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quickly.
We use the term bankruptcy that
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is an economic term here.
Water bankruptcy isn't just
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about dry cups.
Yeah, it is not.
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It's it's actually about food.
Around 60% of irrigated
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agriculture relies on
groundwater.
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Many major food producing
regions are running on fossil
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water that accumulated thousands
of years ago.
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Kind of like oil and gas
reserves.
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Once that's gone, it doesn't
refill.
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At least on on human times,
right?
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It takes many thousand years
again to refill these of the
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1st, yeah.
So you get this illusion of
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stability.
Everything looks fine until
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suddenly it isn't anymore.
Yeah, and when food systems
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wobble, everything else follows.
Prices rise, trade patterns
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start to shift, Political
instability increases.
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The report links the water
stress to migration pressures as
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well, particularly in parts of
Africa, South Asia and the
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Middle East.
And I can actually relate to
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some of this.
In parts of India and definitely
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in some parts of Pakistan,
regional or countrywide
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migration is happening because
the water table has gone down to
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really alarming levels.
And this is this is actually
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climate risk that it's that is
now showing its face as
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geopolitical risk.
And often in these cases, this
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is far away from where the water
problem actually it is.
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So you see consequences spread
kilometers away.
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Yes, water bankruptcy actually
travels through supply chains
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and there are multiple
references about this on
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included in the UN report and
the and the work that the World
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Bank has done on water and and
fragility.
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Let's go back to that word,
Bara, bankruptcy.
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Often in climate change
discussion, there is a lot of
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alumnus there.
Is this the case also, is this
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truly an alarm what we're seeing
now in water?
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Yeah.
It's definitely closer to to the
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truth in my opinion, but the
framing around it definitely
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matters.
I mean, a crisis typically
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invites emergency response, but
bankruptcy demands
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restructuring, as we all know
from the language of of finance,
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right?
If a company is bankrupt, what
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do you do?
You try to restructure the
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company.
You don't find bankruptcy by by
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or.
You don't fix bankruptcy by
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hoping for rain.
You fix it by changing the
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rules.
This report argues that we need
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to move from maximizing water
use to managing within hard
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limits, from short term
extraction to long term
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accounting of water.
So we cannot file for a Chapter
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11.
We need to have a mind shift,
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mindset shift and politically
this is hard.
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Very hard because it means
saying no.
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It means reallocating water away
from some views.
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Experts quoted via the Science
Media Center say the term is
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actually quite uncomfortable,
but also accurate.
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So let's trying to not go down
to the Doom spiral.
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Looking from this different
perspective, what does the
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report actually suggest we we
do?
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Several priorities.
First is water accounting.
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As we've said multiple times in
the context of carbon dioxide
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and and other externalities, you
cannot manage what you don't
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measure.
Basin level water budgets are
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becoming very, very essential.
Second, protecting our aquifers.
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Groundwater has to be treated
like strategic infrastructure.
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And 3rd, reallocating water that
includes what kind of crops you
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choose to grow.
How do you design your urban
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centers?
Even getting into dietary
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shifts, about which we mentioned
in the in the episode on
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individual choices, what you eat
also determines your overall
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footprint.
And 4th, it's about equity.
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Poorer communities typically
suffer first despite consuming
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the least, and finally, probably
the most most important one in
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this is political courage.
It takes political courage to
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address these priorities.
And as we said in an other
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episode, college.
Pitiful word, but it's the
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hardest 1 maybe.
It is the hardest one because
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managing bankruptcy means
telling some users they cannot
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have as much water as before.
These recommendations come
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directly from the UN University
Report and not things that you
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and I are have dreamed up in
this episode.
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Yeah.
So Rishi, let's let's bring it
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home.
So in finance, bankruptcy is
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devastating.
But he also can be clarifying.
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It can be.
It forces honesty.
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We have seen obviously, examples
of many companies going into
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bankruptcy and coming out strong
from Chapter 11 filing because
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it forces prioritization, it
forces change. the United
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Nations is is not saying that
the world is out of water.
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It is saying we are out of
illusions.
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And the real question is whether
we keep pretending recovery will
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magically come.
Yeah, or whether we finally
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redesign our systems to live
within planetary limits.
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Again, going back to one of our
favorite topics on this podcast,
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because water, unlike money,
cannot be printed.
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It can only be protected.
Yes, and we need to protect
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generation that will come later
on this.
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Absolutely.
That brings us to the end of
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today's episode.
This is a sustainability forward
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on which we discuss all
important issues surrounding the
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topic of sustainability.
We are present on all major
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podcast platforms, so feel free
to subscribe to this podcast on
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any channel that we use to
consume podcasts.
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This is Rishi your host.
With me is my Co host Carmino.
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Sign up.
Thank you, Carmina.
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Thank you Rishi, good episode.