Oct. 21, 2025
Top Insights from BP Energy Outlook 2025
Renewables have officially overtaken coal as the world’s largest source of electricity — a historic first. But beneath that milestone lies a much more complex story.
In this episode of Sustainability Forward, Wrishi and Carmine unpack BP’s Energy Outlook 2025 to reveal what’s really shaping the global energy transition. From the “two futures” of rapid clean tech expansion in Asia versus fossil resurgence in the West, to the ten key insights that define BP’s latest scenarios — including oil’s long glide path, the LNG decade, AI’s growing power hunger, and why energy efficiency remains the quiet boss.
They close with three big takeaways for anyone thinking seriously about the future of energy:
The hinge of decarbonisation lies in emerging markets.
Build for demand surprises driven by AI and slow efficiency gains.
LNG’s near-term boom will depend on how strongly the world commits to climate goals post-2035.
Listen for a clear, grounded breakdown of the world’s evolving energy map — and what it means for business, policy, and investment.
👉 Visit www.sustainabilityforward.com or find Sustainability Forward on all major podcast platforms.
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Welcome to Sustainability
Forward Harmony.
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We have a top story of the week,
and that is a story published by
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the global energy think tank
Ember.
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And it basically says that the
renewables have officially
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overtaken coal as the world's
leading source of electricity
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for the first time in history.
So in the first part of 2025,
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officially, renewables have
produced more power than coal,
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and that's a huge news.
Yes.
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So Richie, good news.
We see a strong rise in solar
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and a little bit lessening wind
and this brings renewables
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overtaking coal generation for
the first time on record in the
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first half in 2025.
So we have a share now as a
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result of renewables around 34%,
why Kohl's is around 33%?
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Now what's interesting is that
the this headline doesn't tell
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the full story.
So Ember basically says that the
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global picture, if we look at
country by country or region by
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region, is actually quite mixed.
And it is the developing
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countries, particularly China,
which have led the clean energy
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charge, while the wealthier
countries like the US or the
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countries in the European Union,
they actually increase their
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reliance on fossil fuels.
And there is much be beyond that
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because it's about geopolitics,
it's about energy security.
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Actually, probably we should do
an episode around exactly what's
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happening in some countries,
China, but also in India or in
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Pakistan, for example, this
year.
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And we talk a lot about about
China in this episode.
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Now let's go back the link to
this.
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When we look at the
International Energy Agency and
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it's report, we see that the gap
between these regions it's
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likely to widen.
China had the most solar and
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weak capacity than the rest of
the world combined.
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And while the International
Energy Agency has now held its
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forecast for US renewable from
that growth for this decade,
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this went from 500 gigabytes to
1 to around 250.
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Yeah.
And so, so this is basically,
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you know, showing us two
different futures, right, or,
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or, or two energy futures, one
that is led by rapid clean tech
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expansion in Asia and the other
by renewed fossil fuel
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investments in the West, which
is quite, quite a stark
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comparison really.
And probably you hear this kind
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of concept around the more and
more the concept of an
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electrostate versus a
petrostate.
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And we can talk about this
actually when we're looking at
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the country lenses episode.
Now this contrast raises a big
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question.
What does it mean for the global
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energy balance going forward?
And that is exactly what we are
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going to unpack into today's
episode because what we're going
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to do is we're going to deep
dive into BP's Energy Outlook
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2025 and explore what the shifts
say about who's really leading
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the energy transition.
And remember, we last year we
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did the 2024 outlook analysis as
well, but this time the outlook
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has just been published.
So we thought instead of
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drowning you, our audience, in
numbers and many charts, what we
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have done for you is we pulled
out the top 10 insights that we
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think actually matter.
Good.
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So when we start with the two
scenario, this is what BB
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changed this year and then hit
the hit the headlines.
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So the oil long like path, the
LNGB decay, the AI power hunger,
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why efficiencies, the quiet boss
and why emerging economies
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decide whether to go well below
2°.
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Yeah.
So just to frame it up, there
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are two scenarios.
First up is current trajectory
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which we will refer to as CT in
this discussion.
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And think of this scenario or
yeah, think of this scenario as
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a scenario as the business as
usual.
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We just keep muddling through.
Policies more or less stay the
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same.
There are incremental
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improvements, but no giant U
turns in in behaviour.
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So tech keeps advancing, as you
said, no big policies that
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change emissions, eek, mitigate
and then decline slowly, too
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slowly to hit climate goals.
It's realistic about friction
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permitting supply chain consumer
consumer inertia.
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The second scenario is called
below 2°, so it's quite apparent
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from the name what it means.
We will refer to it as BP does
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as BP as the second scenario
that is designed to be broadly
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consistent with keeping global
warming well below 2°C by
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focusing on cumulative emissions
to 2050.
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Important ones this year, this
below the degrees of B2 is not
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global net 0 by 2050.
It's roughly a 90% cut in net
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emission versus 2023 by
20/20/50, leaving a small
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residual to mop up later we dip
back policy or removals.
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Yeah.
So both scenarios, same model,
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same starting date, different
assumptions about policy
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ambition and different
assumptions about efficiency and
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the speed of clean energy build
out.
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VP also lets you layer a few
different sensitivities,
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geopolitics, weak efficiency,
delays on top of either scenario
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to stress test the outcomes.
So the current trajectory, the
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city scenario shows where we are
headed if nothing major changes.
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The below 2° show what it takes
if a lot changes fast,
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especially in power and in
industry and especially in
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emerging economies.
So.
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Let's go into the insights that
we we think matter out of this
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assessment.
Insight number one is the
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framing itself, right?
Last year we had current
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trajectory versus net zero.
This year it is CT versus B.
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And that's helpful.
It grounds the fastest
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transition case in temporary
outcomes instead of heart net 0
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by 2020 fifty deadline.
This also makes it easier to
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compare with IPCC ranges.
Yeah.
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So the bottom line is you are
not debating the vibes, you are
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debating how fast policy and
markets can actually bend.
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Emissions.
The second insight is the map of
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the impact.
So by 20-50, about four 5th 80%
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of the extra emissions reduction
that separate the blue below 2°
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scenario from the current
trajectory scenario come from
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emerging economies.
Yeah.
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And then if we take the sector
lens, it's power that does most
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of the work.
Roughly 2/5 of the gap between,
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again, between CT and B2 is just
cleaning up electricity itself.
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The rest is mostly coming from
industry.
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So in simple terms, if you want
the word to eat the below 2°,
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the winning move is simple but
hard.
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Build clean power faster where
demand is booming and the
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carbonized heat and processes
emissions in the heavy industry
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right now.
Inside 3 is all about oil,
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because we cannot avoid talking
about oil in this kind of an
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outcome.
So let's talk about.
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So in the current trajectory,
the global oil demand lies down
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to a little under the mid 80s
million barrel per day by 2050.
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In the below 2° scenario, it
falls to the mid 30s million
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barrel a day by 2050.
And why does this happen?
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That's because EVs and
efficiency steadily erode Rd.
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transportation demand, while
petrochemicals become the last
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big pocket of oil use.
And again the regional dynamic
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China which drove so much growth
plateaus on oil in the late
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twenty 20's the growth but on
shift from cars to pet Cam
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stocks.
Working site is about the timing
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of peak oil last year.
Peak oil I think was expected to
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be around 2025, right?
If we follow on from what has
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been said, B PS view of peak now
has been pushed out a bit later
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to the peak now has been nudged
later versus last year.
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Yeah, rather than picking
squarely around twenty 25th,
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2025, BP now sees growth hanging
on closer to 20-30.
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So moving to the right even as
both scenarios show declines
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later, the glide is still down.
The Crest just sits a little a
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little further off now.
Since we've talked about oil, we
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cannot avoid talking about gas
and L&T.
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So gas is next now kind.
The keyword is LNG.
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Yes.
So in the current trajectory
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global energy export surge
roughly 50 to 60% by 2035
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compared with immediate Twenty
20's.
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The US and Middle East provide
the majority of that increase in
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the USLNG becomes the largest
lines of gas production through
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the Twenty 30s.
And after 2035, the lines
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diverge.
So remember we are saying gas
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peaks in 2035, but that in the
two scenarios, the lines start
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diverging in B2 below 2°.
As power and industry start to
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decarbonize faster, global gas
and LNG trend down later in the
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period.
In the current trajectory, they
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stay higher for much longer.
So a near terminal Ng looks
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robust post 2035.
Depends on how hard policy
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bites.
Exactly inside #6 is what can be
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called the passwords of today.
AI and data center related.
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The AI question everyone is
asking is, is this power demand
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for real?
You're right, it's so much one
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of the most raised questions
nowadays.
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BP puts the numbers on it in the
current trajectory that the
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centres Dr. Roughly a 10th 10%
of global power demand growth by
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2035, but about 40% of the
growth in the US also, the US
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currently accounts for around
half of the global data centers
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power demand and.
Crucially, BP says the economy
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wide effect of AI, if it indeed
boost productivity, could raise
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overall energy demand more than
just the server room load.
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Bottom line for planners?
So treat AI as both the demand
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drivers and an efficiency wild
card.
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Build grades plus spec CBD like
demand with surprise to the
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upside.
Insight #7 is about efficiency.
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BP stake on it is that energy or
efficiency has in general
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underperformed.
Efficiency is the quiet boss of
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this outlook and again the
conclusion is that it has.
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Lately it has under delivered.
So since 2019, well, energy
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efficiency improvement have been
closer to 1.5% per year, not the
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2% that many plants assume.
The shortfall kept fossil demand
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more resilient, even as wind and
solar scaled.
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Yeah.
So the homework is quite clear.
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Scale efficiency in buildings,
motors, process, heat fleets, or
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the current trajectory will
stick and B2 becomes less and
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less.
Achievable.
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So let's go to the next insight
#8 We're still living through
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the shift from energy addition.
So adding renewables on top of
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rising demand, as you mentioned
at the beginning to the episode,
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to energy substitution where
clean power pushes out for some
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generation.
Yeah.
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And in B2 that substitution
starts to accelerate.
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Power emissions collapse towards
near 0 by 2050 even as
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electricity demand nearly
doubled, right.
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So huge increase in energy
demand from power, but the
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emissions is dropping really
fast in current trajectory.
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Power gets cleaner too.
So power is not all dirty in in
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CT, it's just not fast enough to
pull the whole system down in
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terms of emissions.
Which is why grids, storage and
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permitting are now as important
as turbine turbines and panels,
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correct?
Insight #9 is about geography.
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This is where we tell the
regional story.
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Regional Speed Ground Company US
First tell us what's going on in
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the US.
So U.S. data centre load and
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industrial electrification lift
demand.
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Gas stabilizes the system in the
current trajectory.
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LNG grows through the mid twenty
30s Europe.
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The energy security lenses
renewal plus greed plus
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flexibility to cut important
fuel risk in China.
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As we said before, oil plateaus,
coal power declines, renewables
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Sprint in India.
In emerging Asia, coal supports
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near term expansion, but
renewable LED identification is
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the long game.
So the summary of the regional
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speed round that Carmine just
did is that outcome of the next
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25 or so years essentially
hinges on emerging economies
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where demand is growing the
fastest.
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And let's go to the last insight
#10 and here is about low carbon
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hydrogen and CCUS.
We talk about this a lot about
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this technology in previous
episode is to play a bigger role
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in the below 2 scenario,
especially for industry and bits
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of power.
Most of the heavy lifting
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arrives later in the period.
Therefore, the message is quite
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pragmatic.
They are essential for deep
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decarbonization.
But deployment of hydrogen and
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CCUS dependent policy on
infrastructure and offtake plan
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for sequencing.
Clean power first, then hydrogen
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and carbon capture unlock the
hard to evade sectors.
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So there you go.
We have now taken you through
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the top 10 insights that we
think were important.
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00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:08,280
Now, Carmen, in the next maybe
one or two minutes, let's do
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00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:11,760
kind of the top three takeaways.
What's the number one take away
225
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:15,720
for you?
So one, aim at the hinge.
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00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:21,200
If you decarbonize, if you your
decarb plan isn't centre on
227
00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:25,640
emerging market power and
industrial emissions, you're not
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00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:30,920
moving the global curve. #2
build for surprise on demand.
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00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:36,760
Assume that AI pushes loads up
and efficiency might disappoint.
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00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:41,360
Prioritize grid capacity,
interconnections, and
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00:17:41,360 --> 00:17:44,840
flexibility of resources.
So the three we saw the
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00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:51,960
importance of LNG the next
decade looks constructive in the
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00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:58,600
current trajectory. 2035 depends
on how fast the world leans
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00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:02,600
towards the below 2°.
And that's it.
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00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:11,120
Those were the 10 inside tour of
BP's Energy Outlook 2025 as we
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00:18:11,120 --> 00:18:15,240
saw it.
We have included some details
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00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:22,000
which will give you a flavor of
the important summary of the
238
00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:27,320
energy outlook of this year in
when we published the episode.
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00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,280
We're going to put some more
detailed numbers as well.
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As always, Carmine, it was a
great discussion.
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Thank you for joining me.
Thank you, Richie, and looking
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forward to the next episode.
Absolutely.
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00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:47,280
So for our audiences around the
world, as you know, we are on
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00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:51,680
all major podcast platforms and
episodes will regularly go out
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00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:56,280
on LinkedIn where we are under
the banner Sustainability
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00:18:56,280 --> 00:19:01,320
Forward and.
Also on our great website Rishi.
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00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:02,840
Absolutely.
Go ahead.
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00:19:03,360 --> 00:19:07,440
Sustainabilityforward.com.
Thank you,
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00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:11,560
www.sustainabilityforward.com.
See you next time on
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00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:13,120
Sustainability Forward.
Thank you.
00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:11,640
Welcome to Sustainability
Forward Harmony.
2
00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:18,520
We have a top story of the week,
and that is a story published by
3
00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:21,200
the global energy think tank
Ember.
4
00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:26,400
And it basically says that the
renewables have officially
5
00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:31,120
overtaken coal as the world's
leading source of electricity
6
00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:36,680
for the first time in history.
So in the first part of 2025,
7
00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:41,680
officially, renewables have
produced more power than coal,
8
00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:45,080
and that's a huge news.
Yes.
9
00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:51,360
So Richie, good news.
We see a strong rise in solar
10
00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:55,480
and a little bit lessening wind
and this brings renewables
11
00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:59,640
overtaking coal generation for
the first time on record in the
12
00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:04,160
first half in 2025.
So we have a share now as a
13
00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:10,800
result of renewables around 34%,
why Kohl's is around 33%?
14
00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:15,840
Now what's interesting is that
the this headline doesn't tell
15
00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:20,160
the full story.
So Ember basically says that the
16
00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:23,840
global picture, if we look at
country by country or region by
17
00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,880
region, is actually quite mixed.
And it is the developing
18
00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:32,080
countries, particularly China,
which have led the clean energy
19
00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:36,680
charge, while the wealthier
countries like the US or the
20
00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,960
countries in the European Union,
they actually increase their
21
00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:44,480
reliance on fossil fuels.
And there is much be beyond that
22
00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:48,520
because it's about geopolitics,
it's about energy security.
23
00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:53,560
Actually, probably we should do
an episode around exactly what's
24
00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:57,080
happening in some countries,
China, but also in India or in
25
00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:59,840
Pakistan, for example, this
year.
26
00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:04,400
And we talk a lot about about
China in this episode.
27
00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,880
Now let's go back the link to
this.
28
00:02:09,199 --> 00:02:12,840
When we look at the
International Energy Agency and
29
00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:17,080
it's report, we see that the gap
between these regions it's
30
00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:21,400
likely to widen.
China had the most solar and
31
00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,840
weak capacity than the rest of
the world combined.
32
00:02:25,640 --> 00:02:32,560
And while the International
Energy Agency has now held its
33
00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:38,480
forecast for US renewable from
that growth for this decade,
34
00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:44,120
this went from 500 gigabytes to
1 to around 250.
35
00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:47,560
Yeah.
And so, so this is basically,
36
00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:51,040
you know, showing us two
different futures, right, or,
37
00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:56,760
or, or two energy futures, one
that is led by rapid clean tech
38
00:02:56,760 --> 00:03:01,520
expansion in Asia and the other
by renewed fossil fuel
39
00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:04,880
investments in the West, which
is quite, quite a stark
40
00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:10,120
comparison really.
And probably you hear this kind
41
00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,200
of concept around the more and
more the concept of an
42
00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:16,040
electrostate versus a
petrostate.
43
00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:23,040
And we can talk about this
actually when we're looking at
44
00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:28,160
the country lenses episode.
Now this contrast raises a big
45
00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:30,720
question.
What does it mean for the global
46
00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:35,040
energy balance going forward?
And that is exactly what we are
47
00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:38,240
going to unpack into today's
episode because what we're going
48
00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:43,160
to do is we're going to deep
dive into BP's Energy Outlook
49
00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:49,520
2025 and explore what the shifts
say about who's really leading
50
00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:53,320
the energy transition.
And remember, we last year we
51
00:03:53,320 --> 00:04:01,040
did the 2024 outlook analysis as
well, but this time the outlook
52
00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:04,080
has just been published.
So we thought instead of
53
00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:09,200
drowning you, our audience, in
numbers and many charts, what we
54
00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:13,240
have done for you is we pulled
out the top 10 insights that we
55
00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:14,720
think actually matter.
Good.
56
00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:18,399
So when we start with the two
scenario, this is what BB
57
00:04:18,399 --> 00:04:22,400
changed this year and then hit
the hit the headlines.
58
00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:32,000
So the oil long like path, the
LNGB decay, the AI power hunger,
59
00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,560
why efficiencies, the quiet boss
and why emerging economies
60
00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:39,080
decide whether to go well below
2°.
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00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:42,400
Yeah.
So just to frame it up, there
62
00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:47,200
are two scenarios.
First up is current trajectory
63
00:04:47,280 --> 00:04:50,160
which we will refer to as CT in
this discussion.
64
00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:54,440
And think of this scenario or
yeah, think of this scenario as
65
00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:56,880
a scenario as the business as
usual.
66
00:04:56,880 --> 00:05:00,640
We just keep muddling through.
Policies more or less stay the
67
00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:03,000
same.
There are incremental
68
00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,720
improvements, but no giant U
turns in in behaviour.
69
00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:13,880
So tech keeps advancing, as you
said, no big policies that
70
00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:21,200
change emissions, eek, mitigate
and then decline slowly, too
71
00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:25,640
slowly to hit climate goals.
It's realistic about friction
72
00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,480
permitting supply chain consumer
consumer inertia.
73
00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:33,840
The second scenario is called
below 2°, so it's quite apparent
74
00:05:33,840 --> 00:05:37,480
from the name what it means.
We will refer to it as BP does
75
00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:42,240
as BP as the second scenario
that is designed to be broadly
76
00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:48,240
consistent with keeping global
warming well below 2°C by
77
00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:51,360
focusing on cumulative emissions
to 2050.
78
00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:56,160
Important ones this year, this
below the degrees of B2 is not
79
00:05:56,160 --> 00:06:02,920
global net 0 by 2050.
It's roughly a 90% cut in net
80
00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:08,640
emission versus 2023 by
20/20/50, leaving a small
81
00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:15,640
residual to mop up later we dip
back policy or removals.
82
00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:18,760
Yeah.
So both scenarios, same model,
83
00:06:19,280 --> 00:06:22,920
same starting date, different
assumptions about policy
84
00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:26,960
ambition and different
assumptions about efficiency and
85
00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:29,600
the speed of clean energy build
out.
86
00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:34,200
VP also lets you layer a few
different sensitivities,
87
00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:41,360
geopolitics, weak efficiency,
delays on top of either scenario
88
00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:46,760
to stress test the outcomes.
So the current trajectory, the
89
00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:51,920
city scenario shows where we are
headed if nothing major changes.
90
00:06:52,840 --> 00:06:57,720
The below 2° show what it takes
if a lot changes fast,
91
00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:00,840
especially in power and in
industry and especially in
92
00:07:00,840 --> 00:07:02,400
emerging economies.
So.
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00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:09,560
Let's go into the insights that
we we think matter out of this
94
00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:12,960
assessment.
Insight number one is the
95
00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:17,680
framing itself, right?
Last year we had current
96
00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:22,480
trajectory versus net zero.
This year it is CT versus B.
97
00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,320
And that's helpful.
It grounds the fastest
98
00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:30,520
transition case in temporary
outcomes instead of heart net 0
99
00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:34,280
by 2020 fifty deadline.
This also makes it easier to
100
00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:37,880
compare with IPCC ranges.
Yeah.
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00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:41,160
So the bottom line is you are
not debating the vibes, you are
102
00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:45,320
debating how fast policy and
markets can actually bend.
103
00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,720
Emissions.
The second insight is the map of
104
00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:54,480
the impact.
So by 20-50, about four 5th 80%
105
00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:58,960
of the extra emissions reduction
that separate the blue below 2°
106
00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:02,960
scenario from the current
trajectory scenario come from
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00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:05,680
emerging economies.
Yeah.
108
00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:10,440
And then if we take the sector
lens, it's power that does most
109
00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:13,560
of the work.
Roughly 2/5 of the gap between,
110
00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:18,880
again, between CT and B2 is just
cleaning up electricity itself.
111
00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,000
The rest is mostly coming from
industry.
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00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:26,840
So in simple terms, if you want
the word to eat the below 2°,
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00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:29,920
the winning move is simple but
hard.
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00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:35,120
Build clean power faster where
demand is booming and the
115
00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:38,960
carbonized heat and processes
emissions in the heavy industry
116
00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:43,600
right now.
Inside 3 is all about oil,
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00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:47,240
because we cannot avoid talking
about oil in this kind of an
118
00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:48,880
outcome.
So let's talk about.
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00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:54,600
So in the current trajectory,
the global oil demand lies down
120
00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:59,640
to a little under the mid 80s
million barrel per day by 2050.
121
00:09:00,560 --> 00:09:05,320
In the below 2° scenario, it
falls to the mid 30s million
122
00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:09,640
barrel a day by 2050.
And why does this happen?
123
00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:15,560
That's because EVs and
efficiency steadily erode Rd.
124
00:09:15,560 --> 00:09:19,280
transportation demand, while
petrochemicals become the last
125
00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:22,600
big pocket of oil use.
And again the regional dynamic
126
00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:27,480
China which drove so much growth
plateaus on oil in the late
127
00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:32,720
twenty 20's the growth but on
shift from cars to pet Cam
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00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:36,600
stocks.
Working site is about the timing
129
00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:42,520
of peak oil last year.
Peak oil I think was expected to
130
00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:46,400
be around 2025, right?
If we follow on from what has
131
00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:53,320
been said, B PS view of peak now
has been pushed out a bit later
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00:09:53,560 --> 00:09:57,520
to the peak now has been nudged
later versus last year.
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00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:02,160
Yeah, rather than picking
squarely around twenty 25th,
134
00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:07,600
2025, BP now sees growth hanging
on closer to 20-30.
135
00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:12,720
So moving to the right even as
both scenarios show declines
136
00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:17,840
later, the glide is still down.
The Crest just sits a little a
137
00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:21,960
little further off now.
Since we've talked about oil, we
138
00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:26,440
cannot avoid talking about gas
and L&T.
139
00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:29,560
So gas is next now kind.
The keyword is LNG.
140
00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:32,520
Yes.
So in the current trajectory
141
00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:39,240
global energy export surge
roughly 50 to 60% by 2035
142
00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,080
compared with immediate Twenty
20's.
143
00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:46,600
The US and Middle East provide
the majority of that increase in
144
00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:50,560
the USLNG becomes the largest
lines of gas production through
145
00:10:50,560 --> 00:10:56,120
the Twenty 30s.
And after 2035, the lines
146
00:10:56,120 --> 00:11:00,680
diverge.
So remember we are saying gas
147
00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:05,520
peaks in 2035, but that in the
two scenarios, the lines start
148
00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:11,040
diverging in B2 below 2°.
As power and industry start to
149
00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:17,320
decarbonize faster, global gas
and LNG trend down later in the
150
00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:20,320
period.
In the current trajectory, they
151
00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:26,320
stay higher for much longer.
So a near terminal Ng looks
152
00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:31,480
robust post 2035.
Depends on how hard policy
153
00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:38,800
bites.
Exactly inside #6 is what can be
154
00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:43,560
called the passwords of today.
AI and data center related.
155
00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:49,400
The AI question everyone is
asking is, is this power demand
156
00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:51,800
for real?
You're right, it's so much one
157
00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:54,720
of the most raised questions
nowadays.
158
00:11:56,280 --> 00:12:00,640
BP puts the numbers on it in the
current trajectory that the
159
00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:06,480
centres Dr. Roughly a 10th 10%
of global power demand growth by
160
00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:15,600
2035, but about 40% of the
growth in the US also, the US
161
00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:19,560
currently accounts for around
half of the global data centers
162
00:12:19,560 --> 00:12:25,760
power demand and.
Crucially, BP says the economy
163
00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:30,920
wide effect of AI, if it indeed
boost productivity, could raise
164
00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:35,560
overall energy demand more than
just the server room load.
165
00:12:35,680 --> 00:12:39,360
Bottom line for planners?
So treat AI as both the demand
166
00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:41,480
drivers and an efficiency wild
card.
167
00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:46,680
Build grades plus spec CBD like
demand with surprise to the
168
00:12:46,680 --> 00:12:51,240
upside.
Insight #7 is about efficiency.
169
00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:57,880
BP stake on it is that energy or
efficiency has in general
170
00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:02,400
underperformed.
Efficiency is the quiet boss of
171
00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:06,920
this outlook and again the
conclusion is that it has.
172
00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:13,400
Lately it has under delivered.
So since 2019, well, energy
173
00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:19,760
efficiency improvement have been
closer to 1.5% per year, not the
174
00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:26,440
2% that many plants assume.
The shortfall kept fossil demand
175
00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,480
more resilient, even as wind and
solar scaled.
176
00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,120
Yeah.
So the homework is quite clear.
177
00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:39,480
Scale efficiency in buildings,
motors, process, heat fleets, or
178
00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:44,040
the current trajectory will
stick and B2 becomes less and
179
00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:44,840
less.
Achievable.
180
00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:50,160
So let's go to the next insight
#8 We're still living through
181
00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:54,920
the shift from energy addition.
So adding renewables on top of
182
00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:58,640
rising demand, as you mentioned
at the beginning to the episode,
183
00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:04,640
to energy substitution where
clean power pushes out for some
184
00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,040
generation.
Yeah.
185
00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:11,840
And in B2 that substitution
starts to accelerate.
186
00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:18,680
Power emissions collapse towards
near 0 by 2050 even as
187
00:14:18,680 --> 00:14:20,840
electricity demand nearly
doubled, right.
188
00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:26,560
So huge increase in energy
demand from power, but the
189
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:31,360
emissions is dropping really
fast in current trajectory.
190
00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:35,560
Power gets cleaner too.
So power is not all dirty in in
191
00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:43,200
CT, it's just not fast enough to
pull the whole system down in
192
00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:46,600
terms of emissions.
Which is why grids, storage and
193
00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:51,280
permitting are now as important
as turbine turbines and panels,
194
00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:57,080
correct?
Insight #9 is about geography.
195
00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,600
This is where we tell the
regional story.
196
00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:04,680
Regional Speed Ground Company US
First tell us what's going on in
197
00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:10,320
the US.
So U.S. data centre load and
198
00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:13,320
industrial electrification lift
demand.
199
00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:17,880
Gas stabilizes the system in the
current trajectory.
200
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LNG grows through the mid twenty
30s Europe.
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The energy security lenses
renewal plus greed plus
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flexibility to cut important
fuel risk in China.
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00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:40,320
As we said before, oil plateaus,
coal power declines, renewables
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Sprint in India.
In emerging Asia, coal supports
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near term expansion, but
renewable LED identification is
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the long game.
So the summary of the regional
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00:15:53,880 --> 00:16:00,280
speed round that Carmine just
did is that outcome of the next
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00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:05,240
25 or so years essentially
hinges on emerging economies
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where demand is growing the
fastest.
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And let's go to the last insight
#10 and here is about low carbon
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hydrogen and CCUS.
We talk about this a lot about
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this technology in previous
episode is to play a bigger role
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00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:27,560
in the below 2 scenario,
especially for industry and bits
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00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,280
of power.
Most of the heavy lifting
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00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,840
arrives later in the period.
Therefore, the message is quite
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00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,600
pragmatic.
They are essential for deep
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00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:41,440
decarbonization.
But deployment of hydrogen and
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00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:46,800
CCUS dependent policy on
infrastructure and offtake plan
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00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,760
for sequencing.
Clean power first, then hydrogen
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00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:54,960
and carbon capture unlock the
hard to evade sectors.
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00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:59,320
So there you go.
We have now taken you through
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00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,240
the top 10 insights that we
think were important.
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00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:08,280
Now, Carmen, in the next maybe
one or two minutes, let's do
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kind of the top three takeaways.
What's the number one take away
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for you?
So one, aim at the hinge.
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00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:21,200
If you decarbonize, if you your
decarb plan isn't centre on
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00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:25,640
emerging market power and
industrial emissions, you're not
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00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:30,920
moving the global curve. #2
build for surprise on demand.
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00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:36,760
Assume that AI pushes loads up
and efficiency might disappoint.
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Prioritize grid capacity,
interconnections, and
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00:17:41,360 --> 00:17:44,840
flexibility of resources.
So the three we saw the
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00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:51,960
importance of LNG the next
decade looks constructive in the
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00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:58,600
current trajectory. 2035 depends
on how fast the world leans
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00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:02,600
towards the below 2°.
And that's it.
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00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:11,120
Those were the 10 inside tour of
BP's Energy Outlook 2025 as we
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00:18:11,120 --> 00:18:15,240
saw it.
We have included some details
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00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:22,000
which will give you a flavor of
the important summary of the
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00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:27,320
energy outlook of this year in
when we published the episode.
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00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,280
We're going to put some more
detailed numbers as well.
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00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:34,920
As always, Carmine, it was a
great discussion.
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Thank you for joining me.
Thank you, Richie, and looking
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00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:42,520
forward to the next episode.
Absolutely.
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So for our audiences around the
world, as you know, we are on
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00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:51,680
all major podcast platforms and
episodes will regularly go out
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00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:56,280
on LinkedIn where we are under
the banner Sustainability
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00:18:56,280 --> 00:19:01,320
Forward and.
Also on our great website Rishi.
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Absolutely.
Go ahead.
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00:19:03,360 --> 00:19:07,440
Sustainabilityforward.com.
Thank you,
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00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:11,560
www.sustainabilityforward.com.
See you next time on
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00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:13,120
Sustainability Forward.
Thank you.
